Based on common usage and dictionary definitions, the phrase “likely refers to the” usually points to the highest probability or the most plausible option among several possibilities. It is frequently used to indicate:
A strong probability: That something is expected to happen or is probably true (e.g., “The likely outcome” means the result that is most probable).
The most plausible explanation: When assessing evidence, “what this likely refers to” points to the interpretation with the highest likelihood of being correct.
A reasonable expectation: An event that can reasonably be anticipated. In short, it means the most expected or probable answer. LIKELY Definition & Meaning – Merriam-Webster